Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) has been released — and while it rightly warns that 1.5 million Australians could be at risk from sea-level rise by 2050, it fails to acknowledge the much larger and more dangerous reality.
Despite clear scientific warnings that sea levels could rise by two metres or more this century due to Antarctic ice sheet collapse, the assessment only models much lower, “plausible” projections. It dismisses high-end scenarios as having “low confidence” — even though a growing body of research shows these risks are very real and may already be locked in.
This is a critical failure of risk assessment. When the consequences are potentially catastrophic and irreversible, good planning must account for worst-case scenarios — not just the convenient or politically acceptable ones.
By downplaying these risks, the NCRA leaves vulnerable communities underprepared and policy responses dangerously incomplete. It also continues a troubling trend: Australia has consistently underestimated the pace and severity of climate impacts — from fires to floods to extreme heat — with devastating consequences.
David Spratt from Breakthrough has written a full response outlining where the report falls short and why we must do better: Australia’s climate assessment fails on sea-level rise risks and vulnerable communities
