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Seminar: Impact of generation mix on electricity prices

Added by editor, on May 30th, 2013

UNE Business School Seminar Series

  • When: 1 pm, Friday, 31 May
  • Where: UNE Campus, Economics, Business and Law, LT2, W40

Forecasting the impact of generation mix on wholesale electricity prices in Australia
Professor Andrew Worthington

This paper examines the impact of the generation mix, encompassing both fossil fuels (black and brown coal and natural gas) and renewables (hydro and wind power) across a range of technologies on daily spot electricity prices across the five regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market from January 2006 to June 2012. The main objective is to gain insights into the emergent effect of current government policy and industry developments regarding the choice of generation on wholesale electricity prices. This is because different generation mixes imply different market properties regarding energy costs (including the costs of the initial investment, operations and maintenance, and the costs of fuel and capital). Using least squares and quantile regressions, we find that the changing generation mix used for producing electricity exerts a strong influence on wholesale prices, with prices expected to increase markedly with the increasing utilization of gas-fired generation used to support the intermittent and variable production from renewables and from the policy driven use of renewables wind power associated with the current renewable energy target and carbon taxation in Australia.

Seminar Presenter’s Short Bio:
Andrew Worthington is Professor of Finance in the Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics at Griffith University. He holds Masters degrees from the University of New South Wales and the University of New England, and obtained his doctorate from the University of Queensland. His previous career appointments comprise the University of New England, the Queensland University of Technology and the University of Wollongong and his teaching interests encompass corporate finance and strategy and financial markets and institutions. His current research focus includes household, small business and Islamic finance, electricity and other commodity markets, and financial institution, urban water and university efficiency measurement.

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